After the Israeli-Hezbollah War:
What Lies Ahead?
Questions & Answers

What were the conditions that led to the war?

In May 2000 Israel pulled all its troops out of southern Lebanon ending an 18-year military presence there. The Israeli withdrawal was conducted in coordination with the U.N., and according to the U.N. Security Council, Israel fulfilled all its obligations under Security Council Resolution 425.

Israel, and the international community, expected the Lebanese government to deploy its army right up to the border, disarm Hezbollah, and maintain order. This did not happen. Hezbollah not only retained its arms, but also effectively was in full control of southern Lebanon: a state-within-a-state.

Despite repeated complaints from the United States, the U.N. Security Council and Israel, the Lebanese government was incapable and unwilling to disarm Hezbollah. Hezbollah was in turn armed with an estimated 12,000 rockets of various types, supplied by Iran and Syria.

This summer’s escalation of violence began near Gaza on June 25 when Hamas – the ruling party in the Palestinian parliament – crossed the internationally recognized armistice line between Israel and the Gaza Strip – and penetrated an Israeli army post, killing two soldiers and abducting another. Since Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip last summer, Hamas and other Palestinian terror groups have fired nearly 1,000 rockets into communities in sovereign Israel. These actions set the stage for Hezbollah to pull Israel into a two-front conflict.

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What is Hezbollah?

Founded in 1982, and currently led by Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah is a radical Shi’ite Islamist terrorist organization that opposes the West, taking ideological inspiration from the Iran’ 1979 “Islamic Revolution” and the teachings of the late Ayatollah Khomeini. It seeks to create a Muslim fundamentalist state modeled after Iran, and is a bitter foe of Israel, the United States and the West in general. The group's name is Arabic for “Party of God.”

Hezbollah’s two main patrons are Iran and Syria from which it receives substantial amounts of financial, training, weapons, explosives, political, diplomatic, and organizational aid. In November 2001, the U.S. State Department placed Hezbollah on a formal list of foreign terrorist organizations whose financial assets can be seized.

Hezbollah and its affiliates have planned or been linked to a lengthy series of terrorist attacks against America, Israel, and other Western targets:

• The suicide truck bombings that killed 241 U.S. Marines at their barracks in Beirut, Lebanon (1983)
• The 1985 hijacking of TWA flight 847, which featured the famous footage of the plane's pilot leaning out of the cockpit with a gun to his head
• Two major 1990s attacks on Jewish targets in Argentina — the 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy (killing 29) and the 1994 bombing of a Jewish Community Center (killing 85)
• Bombing of Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia killing 19 U.S. servicemen (1996)
• Car bombing of U.S. Embassy in Beirut killing 63 people, including 17 Americans (1983)
• Bombing outside U.S. Embassy annex in Beirut killing 24 (1984) 
• Car bombing of French military barracks in Beirut killing 58 French paratroopers (1983)

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What specifically touched off this summer’s war with Hezbollah?

On July 12, the provocation against Israel continued when Hezbollah crossed the internationally recognized border between Israel and Lebanon – the line that Israel withdrew to in 2000 – and attacked two IDF reconnaissance vehicles, killing eight and kidnapping two IDF soldiers. Hezbollah launched a salvo of Katyusha rockets into Israeli towns.

Israel, exercising its right of self-defense, launched an offensive involving air strikes on suspected Hezbollah military targets, particularly rocket launchers. In an attempt to impede Hezbollah’s ability to fire rockets (approximately 13,000 in total, supplied by Iran) at Israeli civilian targets, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) targeted Lebanese infrastructure, primarily strategic transportation infrastructure, including the Beirut International Airport, bridges, and roads. The IAF also targeted areas where large numbers of Hezbollah militia reside.

These efforts were followed by a more significant Israeli ground offensive to push Hezbollah outside of fire-range of Israeli towns.

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What were Israel’s goals?

To restore a strong policy of deterrence, free her abducted soldiers, remove the terrorist threat from its northern border and enlist the international community in this effort.

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Did Israel achieve any of these goals?

While the war’s outcome was not a stunning victory for Israel in the model of the Six Day War or the Entebbe rescue, nonetheless Israel achieved some significant results in two key areas: militarily and diplomatically.

Militarily Israel succeeded in:

• Destroying most of Hezbollah’s long-range rocket launchers
• Destroying most of Hezbollah’s operational and logistical infrastructure that was painstakingly built up over a period of years
• Shooting down armed drones aimed at Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv
• Killing about 500 Hezbollah fighters, about one-quarter of Hezbollah’s fighting force

Diplomatically, Israel gained a number of key accomplishments. With U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, the “cease-fire” resolution, the situation on the ground in Lebanon has changed. Some examples:

• Hezbollah was forced to accept the deployment of the Lebanese army in the south, and an international force will augment the Lebanese army. Hezbollah resisted both these developments for years; this is a setback for Hezbollah.
• While a gloss of unified support for Hezbollah developed in Lebanon during the war, Lebanon’s long-standing subterranean political fissures are coming to the surface once again. Already voices are being heard overtly blaming Hezbollah for the ruin it brought upon Lebanon, which had been well on the road to recovery after fifteen years of civil war.
• Hezbollah’s patron state, Iran, has been exposed to the entire international community for its irresponsible foreign policy and militarism. This will likely have a strong impact on the international community’s handling of the Iranian nuclear issue.

While Israelis suffered significant losses – some 158 killed and severe property damage – nonetheless Nasrallah’s hyperbolic predictions that Israel was so weak it would collapse like a “spider web” proved completely wrong. Israel absorbed nearly 3,970 rocket hits, yet the Israeli people more than lived up to their reputation for resiliency and fortitude.

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What are some of the challenges that lie ahead?

A number of factors challenge Israel and the international community:

• There are significant questions surrounding the proposed multinational force. Who will compose the force? What will their mandate be? Will it be a peacekeeping or a peacemaking force? How will it respond to provocations?
• It has been Israel’s experience that an international force will only be successful when it monitors an agreement reached by viable partners that genuinely want the agreement to succeed. In this case, the government of Lebanon is simply too weak to enforce its responsibilities in any deal.
• Hezbollah created a state-within-a-state in southern Lebanon and in recent years enjoyed nearly full autonomy there – including the building of a powerful and well-disciplined army. With the support of its patrons Iran and Syria, and at the expense of Lebanon’s sovereignty and peace, Hezbollah will resist any serious challenge to force it to disarm and relinquish control in southern Lebanon.
• Realistically, unless it is disarmed, Hezbollah will be capable of attacking Israel again, without the consent of the Lebanese government, and could set off another round of warfare. This is why it is critical for the international community to assist Lebanon in asserting its full sovereignty in all of Lebanon’s territory right up to the border with Israel, and for the Beirut government to be the sole authority with a military force in Lebanon. The leadership of Italy is encouraging, even as other major European powers have limited their role, at present.

The cease-fire alone will not resolve the problem of Hezbollah’s terror against Israel. Ultimately, there needs to be a political solution, which requires a stronger Lebanese political infrastructure, and the removal of Iranian and Syrian interference in Lebanese internal affairs.

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With thanks to the JCRC of San Francisco, the Peninsula. Marin, Sonoma, Alameda and Contra Costa Counties

For additional analysis on the conflict based in Lebanon and on related issues, refer to The Reut Institute, an Israeli non-partisan, not-for-profit policy team based in Tel-Aviv at: http://www.reut-institute.org/ or contact the