A top New Jersey pro-Israel PAC is recommending that its 4,000 members put time and money behind the two frontrunners, Democrat Hilary Clinton and Republican Rudolph Giuliani.

In the August edition of NORPAC's e-mail newsletter, president Ben Chouake recommended that "if our members wish to weigh in on the Presidential race that they do so with one of the above candidates," indicating the New York state senator and the former mayor of New York City.

In an interview with NJ Jewish News, Chouake said the PAC was merely playing the odds, and that the suggestion did not constitute endorsements of either candidate.

"What we are saying is: ‘Look, if you are going to get involved in a campaign, these are the people worthwhile getting involved with,'" said Chouake. "Why did we pick these people? They are the frontrunners, and if you are going to be involved by putting your efforts and your resources into it, you may as well have a chance of having that be fruitful."

Citing an unlikely source, Chouake said his presumptions were based, at least in part, on pollsters' odds.

"If you look at the odds-makers, they give you a four-to-one chance on Hillary at this point and five- or six-to-one on Rudy," he said. "We look at the odds because they use statistical models.

"The odds-makers don't care who wins; they just analyze the polls, and we look at the polls, too. We analyze all of the information and put it together, and we more or less came to the same conclusion as the odds-makers."

NORPAC is currently preparing to host a benefit for Clinton. After it takes place, Chouake predicted, NORPAC members will have raised "about $200,000" for her. In the past, the group has raised between $100,000 and $120,000 for Giuliani. He said the disparity "is a reflection of the fact that she is the very clear frontrunner."

Although he said that it was "probably worthwhile" for members with other preferences to stand by their favorites, Choauke advised NORPAC members to "put your energy" where it will do the most good. "Go with the frontrunners," he reiterated.

Other NJ pro-Israel activists are not convinced by Chouake's suggestions or analysis this early in the race.

"It's a long time between now and convention time," said Giuliani backer and NORPAC member Steve Klinghoffer, a Short Hills resident and past president of United Jewish Communities of MetroWest New Jersey. "I don't think anybody's got anything locked."

Rabbi Menachem Genack of Englewood, a Clinton supporter, does not think Giuliani is going to end up with the GOP nomination, although he said he was not commenting directly on the NORPAC newsletter.

"I don't think the Republican base will go for" Giuliani, said Genack, administrator of the Kashrus Division of the Orthodox Union. "And I think he was hurt in Iowa because [former Massachusetts governor] Mitt Romney won" the GOP straw poll there, an event the ex-mayor did not compete in.

As for the Democrats, "I think Hillary has the nomination. I don't think anybody thinks otherwise," added Genack. "Hillary has it locked up. She is 20 points ahead of [Illinois Sen. Barack] Obama and that lead is growing."

Chouake also heard from supporters of former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC), who is trailing both Clinton and Obama.

"Some people were upset I left Edwards off the list," said Chouake.

As of Aug. 5, the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll had Clinton with a 45 percent vote among NJ Democratic voters, with 21 percent for Obama and 16 percent for Edwards.

"The problem with Obama for us is, first of all, he is an unknown," said Chouake. As for Edwards, "I can like his politics and his stance on Israel, but it doesn't matter" because of his standing in the polls.

The NORPAC leader said the polls take precedence over personal feelings toward Republican candidates as well.

"I like [Kansas Sen.] Sam Brownback. He is a great guy, and I think he'll make a fine president. Nobody can be better on Israel than Brownback. Brownback will lie in front of a train for Israel. I know him personally. I walk into his office and he says, ‘Ben, how are you?' But I didn't list him because he has a 100-to-one shot at this point."

Polls taken in New Jersey earlier this summer give Brownback one percent of the Republican vote.

His name did not appear on the Eagleton survey, which puts Giuliani in front with 61 percent, trailed by Arizona Sen. John McCain with 10 percent, ex-Tennessee senator and actor Fred Thompson at eight percent, and Romney at five percent.

"If it came down to Clinton against Giuliani for president, I doubt we would endorse one over the other," said Chouake.

Although Genack does not think "Giuliani is going to end up with the nomination because I don't think the Republican base will go for him," he said he believes the ex-mayor's support of Israel could draw votes from some Jewish Democrats.

"Of the Republican candidates, Giuliani would be the one with the strongest support of the Jewish community," said Genack. "It's not that I happen to agree with him, but on social issues he is more in sync with the general Jewish population and more liberal" than other potential GOP candidates.

Klinghoffer agreed.

"Rudy already has sizeable Jewish support. I think he will do better than any other candidate among Jewish voters, period," he said. "I don't know who is going to win but he certainly has the tools to win, starting with his support of Israel, with business issues, and with economic and social issues. I think he's the best candidate."

Both Genack and Klinghoffer said they believe that the low popularity ratings of the Bush administration will be a tough obstacle for any Republican candidate to overcome.

"I think it is going to be a Democratic year. It is hard to believe the war in Iraq will be completely resolved or Americans will forget the level of incompetence of this administration," said Genack.

"The Bush administration's record is baggage for any Republican, absolutely," said Klinghoffer.