BEIRUT, Lebanon - A flurry of recent attacks and retaliation threats has the Mideast on edge about a possible new round of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah this spring or summer.

The issue lurks behind the scenes as Arab leaders head to a summit in next-door Syria, whose relations with Lebanon and support for Hezbollah have raised regional tensions.

Despite the public fear and apparent preparations by both Hezbollah and Israel, however, many don't think the time is ripe for more outright fighting between the two longtime enemies. They do warn that just as war broke out between the two in the summer of 2006, a miscalculation by either side could again lead to violence.

"I think it's just posturing," said Timur Goksel, a longtime watcher of the Hezbollah-Israel conflict in south Lebanon and former U.N. peacekeeping official.

Nevertheless, the Israeli daily Maariv recently quoted Israeli security officials as saying the country's security establishment is certain that Hezbollah, with Iranian help, is trying to carry out an attack that could trigger harsh Israeli retaliation, and perhaps another outright war.

Israeli defense officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, also have warned that if Hezbollah carries out a large attack to avenge the recent killing of a top Hezbollah commander, the situation could well deteriorate to war.

Yet Israel also appears to be downplaying the chance: Its annual intelligence report this month estimated a low risk of war on Israel's borders this year. The assessment did say that if war erupted, it would likely come from Israel's northern border with southern Lebanon - Hezbollah's stronghold - and that conflict with Hezbollah was likelier than with any other group.

"I think for the time being the Hezbollah are busy with the Hezbollah crisis," and not willing to go to war, said Israeli analyst Efraim Inbar, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv.

He was referring to Hezbollah's bitter power struggle with the Western- and Saudi-backed government in Lebanon.

Inbar warned Israel should be prepared though. "They are an enemy of Israel and they have an interest to attack it. When they have an opportunity they will do so," he said.

The war speculation reached fever pitch in recent weeks in part because of the Feb. 12 assassination of the top Hezbollah commander, Imad Mughniyeh, in Syria. Adding to the war fears was the March 6 attack by a Palestinian gunman, linked by some Israeli officials to Hezbollah, who shot dead eight Jewish seminary students in Jerusalem.

The recent deployment of U.S. warships off Lebanon and Saudi advisories telling its citizens to leave Lebanon added to the jitters.

The fears prompted some families in southern Lebanon to consider alternative safe places in case war erupted. Mohammed Hijazi, from the village of Dibbine in Lebanon's south, and his wife had their bags packed and ready at one point, assuming war was imminent.

But they have unpacked and swear they'll stay even if war does break out.

"If, God forbids, something happens I have no place to go to," he said. "Will Beirut be safer than here?"

Israel officially denied any role in Mughniyeh's slaying. Some leaders of Lebanon's anti-Syrian factions, who oppose Hezbollah, have blamed Syria itself. But Hezbollah, a Syrian ally, insists Israel killed him.

Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah after the assassination threatened Israel with "open war." Despite that, Hezbollah leaders say they have prepared for war but will not initiate a fight.

Speaking this week, Nasrallah again vowed to avenge the killing. "We will choose the time, place and manner of punishment," he told supporters Monday. But he called an Israeli attack against Hezbollah unlikely at this point, because he contended, Israel knows any new war "is no longer a picnic."

Israel has been on alert along the border with Lebanon and elsewhere in recent weeks, with extra security at its missions abroad and new measures on civilian flights. Jewish institutions abroad also have taken precautions.

The U.S. said it sent warships off Lebanon to stabilize the region amid tensions with Syria and political uncertainty in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia gave no reason for advising its citizens to leave Lebanon, but the call came two days after the U.S. naval deployment.

Despite all that, some politicians say a war is unlikely now because, among other things, both sides are prepared and on alert, and know the costs: Israel has devastating aerial firepower and Hezbollah boasts thousands of rockets. Israeli defense officials said Thursday that Hezbollah has acquired new long-range Iranian rockets that now threaten most of Israel, though a U.N. spokeswoman said peacekeepers in southern Lebanon have "no reports of new weapons."

Israel also has to deal with its southern border, where it faces frequent Hamas rockets from Gaza, and it also wants to ensure a smooth 60th anniversary in May of the country's founding.

Hezbollah, for its part, is submerged in the political struggle with the government in Beirut and cannot afford to alienate Shiite supporters in southern Lebanon with a second war in less than two years.

"I don't think there is serious intention from both sides" to start a conflict, said Goksel, although he warned that a major incident with casualties could change that.

The summer 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah erupted after Hezbollah seized two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid. That war killed up to 1,200 people in Lebanon and 159 in Israel.

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Associated Press writers Aron Heller in Jerusalem and Mohammed Daraghmeh in Ramallah, West Bank, contributed to this report.